氣候適應性研究應該同時涵蓋氣候變化與地域氣候背景兩方面因素。從城市空間角度進行氣候適應性的研究并對其展開評價，有助于明確城市空間建設在應對氣候問題方面的薄弱環節。本文構建了中國嚴寒地區城市空間的氣候適應性評價指標體系，并以哈爾濱中心城區為例進行氣候適應性的時空分異評價。結果表明，研究區域城市空間的綜合氣候適應性能力在2008~2017年間基本呈提升趨勢，但總體仍處于較低水平，同時各市轄區的氣候適應性存在較為顯著的空間差異和要素發展不均衡現象。本研究將為未來中國開展嚴寒地域氣候背景下的國土空間規劃體系編制、氣候適應性專項規劃研究等提供一定的參考，進而推動中國嚴寒地區城市的氣候適應性建設，也對中國正在開展的氣候適應型城市建設試點工作具有積極的借鑒意義。
關鍵詞
嚴寒地區；城市空間；氣候適應性；評價指標體系；適應策略
中國嚴寒地區城市空間的氣候適應性評價指標體系構建研究
——以哈爾濱市中心城區為例
Construction of Climate Adaptability Evaluation Indicator System for Urban Spaces in the Severe Cold Zones of China—A Case Study on the Central Area of Harbin
1 哈爾濱工業大學建筑學院
2 哈爾濱工業大學寒地國土空間規劃與生態保護修復重點實驗室
由于氣候系統的慣性，氣候變化將帶來持久的影響。為此，政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）指出，在未來的一段時間內，應將氣候適應作為應對氣候變化的重要手段，且城市屬于實行氣候適應措施的重要作用區域。
界定和評價不同城市的氣候適應性是城市開展適應性規劃和決策制定的基礎。近年來，相關領域學者主要通過兩種途徑對城市氣候適應性進行評價研究：1）評價氣候適應行動方案；2）評估城市空間要素與氣候要素的相互作用。第一種途徑關注政府部門主導的氣候適應行動，重在評價行動的經濟和生態效益，目前已成為國內外氣候適應性規劃體系主流做法的一部分；第二種途徑主要衡量城市空間要素能否以及如何適應不斷加劇的氣候變化。然而，目前國內外從城市空間視角展開系統性氣候適應性評價的研究仍十分有限，且尚未建立針對城市空間的氣候適應性評價體系。
城市氣象學家蒂姆·奧克（Tim Oke）認為，不同地域所遭受的氣候變化影響存在較大差別，因此氣候適應性研究應同時涵蓋氣候變化與地域氣候兩方面因素。目前，國內外應對氣候變化的城市空間規劃研究日趨增多，然而基于地域氣候背景探究氣候適應性規劃應對機制的研究十分有限，以地域氣候適應為切入點展開的相關研究幾近空白。立足地域氣候背景評價城市空間的氣候適應性，有助于明確城市空間建設在應對氣候問題方面的薄弱環節。
本文旨在構建中國嚴寒地區（即累年最冷月平均溫度不高于－10°C的地區）城市空間的氣候適應性評價指標體系，并以典型嚴寒地區城市哈爾濱的中心城區為例，針對評價結果提出相關對策，以期為未來中國嚴寒地區城市制定氣候適應性規劃和建設決策提供支撐。
研究團隊總結了基于嚴寒氣候與氣候變化背景的城市空間氣候問題的特殊性，并據此解析嚴寒地區城市空間氣候適應性的內涵，進而提出了嚴寒地區城市空間應對氣候問題的途徑。
城市規劃的核心內容之一是對城市物質空間要素（如土地利用、道路交通、城市建筑和綠地及開放空間）進行布局，而合理的布局與設計可以增強城市對氣候問題的適應能力。因此，從城市空間的角度研究氣候適應性規劃，是氣候適應與城市規劃的重要結合點。
IPCC將應對氣候變化和極端天氣事件的適應策略分為三類：保護（protection）、適應性調節（accommodation）和計劃性撤退（managed retreat）。立足地域氣候與氣候變化的雙重背景，本文將這三類適應策略的應用場景在城市空間層面進行了延伸，界定了嚴寒地區城市空間的三類氣候適應性途徑，即保護修復、適應性調節、計劃性撤退。
嚴寒地區城市空間的氣候問題特征、城市空間要素與氣候適應性途徑的相互作用關系 ? 蔣存妍，冷紅，袁青
1）保護修復。采取工程措施保護城市內易受影響的城市空間，保障重要的社會服務和居民基本的生產生活。此外，還需要修復已經受到影響的空間，通過干預措施將其調整為外界干擾脅迫之前的城市系統狀態。在本研究中，這類途徑主要包括對城市能源消耗量大的交通、建筑產業進行節能修復；對易受冬季嚴寒氣候影響的城市系統進行氣候防護或保護等。
2）適應性調節。當氣候變化趨勢加劇但負面影響較輕時，依靠城市系統自身的韌性或自適應機制而不另外施加適應措施，就能有效調節氣候變化所帶來的影響，實現城市的照常運轉。在本研究中，這類途徑主要包括重點保障冬季城市交通的運行效率，增加綠地及開放空間以提升土壤及植被的碳匯和微氣候調節功能等。
3）計劃性撤退。當受到的脅迫超過自適應與人為適應能力之和時，應對氣候脆弱性或風險性較大的城市空間進行撤退，以減少氣候問題所帶來的負面影響。在本研究中，這類途徑主要包括冬季氣候災害發生時城市的預警及應急處理，以及為應對不利的冬季氣候影響而進行的城市系統轉型（如植被置換）等。
本文基于文獻研究——參考世界其他嚴寒地區城市空間與氣候環境相關性研究成果、發達國家寒地城市氣候調節政策，同時借鑒城市氣候承載力、氣候變化脆弱性等評價指標體系的構建過程——并綜合考慮數據的可獲得性，通過相關類目合并、系列相關剔除等步驟，最終確定了21項評價指標。
根據各項評價指標的不同屬性，通過以下三種途徑為各指標賦值。
1）若評價指標在規劃、法律條令、管理規定中已有明確的定義和計算方式，則據此方式計算獲取指標的數值。
2）對于自身沒有明確定義和計算方式、但可獲取相似指標明確量化要求的評價指標，依據相似指標推斷該指標的參考值。
3）對于暫無明確計算方式的指標（即定性指標），依據指標內涵或橫向比較年度指標值的方式，將指標賦值劃分為三個等級（如低－中－高、不全面－中等－全面）。
由于本評價體系中同時包含定性及定量指標，構成具有一定的復雜性，因此采用主客觀綜合集成賦權法確定評價指標的權重。研究將權重值高于平均水平的指標確定為嚴寒地區城市空間氣候適應性主因子，共8項——室內步行系統覆蓋率、建筑清潔取暖率、用地兼容性、軌道交通出行比例、冬季交通運行指數、綠化覆蓋率、城市通風廊道建設水平，以及城市應急通道網絡覆蓋率。
依托中國嚴寒地區城市空間氣候適應性評價指標體系，本研究選取典型嚴寒地區城市哈爾濱，并以其中心城區為研究對象，基于相關統計及空間數據，對研究區域城市空間開展氣候適應性評價。
哈爾濱地處中國東北平原東北部，是東北地區的交通、政治、經濟、文化、金融中心，同時也是中國緯度最高、冬季氣溫最低的特大城市。哈爾濱的中心城區范圍涵蓋南崗區、道里區、香坊區、道外區、平房區、松北區的全部，以及呼蘭區、雙城區、阿城區的部分區域，總面積約4187km2。
哈爾濱中心城區城市空間的氣候適應性動態變化 ? 蔣存妍，冷紅，袁青
在此期間，隨著國家及地方相關政策陸續出臺，城市社會經濟穩步發展；相關部門逐步意識到增強城市空間氣候適應性的重要性，并在城市建設的各方面采取了積極的應對措施，對生態環境治理的投入也有所增加。相應地，研究區域城市空間的3項氣候適應性能力和綜合氣候適應性能力基本呈現上升的趨勢。然而，研究年份內，研究區域的交通出行及工業企業建筑能源消耗量大、城市空間形態不緊湊、綠地碳匯系統薄弱等問題均較為突出，三項氣候適應性能力和綜合氣候適應性能力的分值都較低。與此同時，綜合氣候適應性能力的得分也呈現出較大波動，且直至2017年才由負轉正。
本研究將研究區域以主干路、快速路及鎮域邊界等為界，劃分為48個片區單元，依據2017年（研究年份的最后一年）各項指標的數據值，為各單元氣候適應性評價指標賦值用于開展空間分析。本研究在ArcGIS10.3軟件中采用Kriging插值勢能分析繪制了研究區域氣候適應性的空間分布地圖，并借助ArcGIS10.3軟件中常用的自然斷點分級法將評價結果劃分為7級，以更清晰地反映研究區域氣候適應性的空間分布特征。
哈爾濱中心城區保護修復能力空間分布 ? 蔣存妍，冷紅，袁青
哈爾濱中心城區適應性調節能力空間分布 ? 蔣存妍，冷紅，袁青
哈爾濱中心城區計劃性撤退能力空間分布 ? 蔣存妍，冷紅，袁青
綜合氣候適應性能力空間分布 ? 蔣存妍，冷紅，袁青
哈爾濱中心城區城市空間的綜合氣候適應性評分較低，得分為正值的用地面積不足總面積的1%。得分低于－0.4分的區域占總研究區域用地面積的70%以上。同時，各市轄區的氣候適應性存在較為顯著的空間差異和要素發展不均衡現象，研究區域北部的氣候適應性普遍優于南部，主城區的氣候適應性性優于其他區域，總體呈現由城市中心向外放射的空間分布格局。
嚴寒地區氣候條件復雜、易受氣候變化影響。本研究的城市空間氣候適應性評價工作所依托的數據為2008～2017年，隨著國家及地方政策的不斷出臺，近年部分評價指標（如建筑清潔取暖率、軌道交通出行比例）已有大幅提升，城市空間的氣候適應性能力得到一定程度提升。未來，應進一步完善城市軌道交通建設、優先保障城市冬季交通運行效率、構建城市通風廊道等措施，逐步提升城市空間的氣候適應性。由此，將氣候適應理念納入國土空間規劃編制過程，并制定具有前瞻性的氣候適應規劃和協同政策設計，是提升中國嚴寒地區城市空間氣候適應性的關鍵。
由于城市系統自身的復雜性，不同規模的城市面對的氣候適應性問題差異很大。本研究旨在探索中國嚴寒地區城市空間的氣候適應性評價指標體系構建與應用，在指標體系的設計及運算方法方面還存在改進的空間。例如，未來應當結合特定的氣候風險提出更具針對性的評價指標，探討除線性加權和法以外更為科學的指標運算方法，并在中國其他嚴寒地區城市進行評價驗證、展開氣候適應性的對比研究等。
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本文引用格式 / PLEASE CITE THIS ARTICLE AS
Jiang, C., Leng, H., & Yuan, Q. (2022). Construction of climate adaptability evaluation indicator system for urban spaces in the severe cold zones of China—A case study on the central area of Harbin. Landscape Architecture Frontiers, 10(4), 45?69. doi:10.15302/J-LAF-1-020062
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編輯 | 周佳怡，田樂
翻譯 | 周佳怡，蔣存妍，田樂
制作 | 田樂，高雨婷
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