《景觀設(shè)計(jì)學(xué)》2021年第6期

俞孔堅(jiān)·氣候適應(yīng)和韌性——《景觀設(shè)計(jì)學(xué)》2021年第6期“主編寄語”

Climate Adaptation and Resilience, by Yu Kongjian

為應(yīng)對全球氣候變化，數(shù)十年來，國際社會做出了巨大的努力，無非兩條途徑：一是減排，二是適應(yīng)。然而，全世界的目光似乎大多聚焦于減排或碳中和。直到最近，更兇猛的洪水淹沒了街道并沖毀了房屋，更猛烈的火災(zāi)吞噬了山林，更干旱的天氣讓農(nóng)民顆粒無收，更嚴(yán)酷的城市熱浪威脅著人的生命……人們似乎才強(qiáng)烈地意識到，闊談減排來實(shí)現(xiàn)氣候的回歸已經(jīng)成為遙不可及的夢想。我們迫切需要擺脫眼前的困境，于是，2021年1月25~26日，聯(lián)合國首屆氣候適應(yīng)峰會（以下簡稱“峰會”）在線上召開，全球的目光投向了適應(yīng)，這“應(yīng)對氣候不能被忽略的另一半”^[1]。

據(jù)《巴黎協(xié)定》所設(shè)定的目標(biāo)，為了避免造成嚴(yán)重后果，全球氣溫升幅較工業(yè)化前水平必須控制在2℃以內(nèi)，并向?qū)⑸刂圃?.5℃以內(nèi)的目標(biāo)努力。^[2]為此，必須在2050年前實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和^[3]。然而，根據(jù)大自然保護(hù)協(xié)會（The Nature Conservancy）的測算，即使全球政府和企業(yè)已經(jīng)采取了加快向清潔能源轉(zhuǎn)型、提高能源利用效率的相關(guān)減排行動(dòng)，我們也難以實(shí)現(xiàn)2℃的溫控目標(biāo)，更無從奢談1.5℃^[4]。但具有諷刺意義的是，近年來，全世界在氣候領(lǐng)域的絕大部分投資都投向了此類節(jié)能減排技術(shù)^[5]，卻幾乎忽視了基于自然的減排途徑—如果動(dòng)員及時(shí)，那么經(jīng)濟(jì)的、基于自然的減排途徑（保護(hù)、恢復(fù)和改良全球森林，濕地和農(nóng)業(yè)用地的土地管理行動(dòng)）有望在2017~2030年間貢獻(xiàn)37%的減排量，將全球氣溫升幅保持在2℃以下^[6]。

根據(jù)峰會報(bào)告，氣候相關(guān)的災(zāi)難在過去三年中給全球造成了6 500億美元的損失，超過了此間全球GDP的0.25%；而且預(yù)計(jì)到2100年時(shí)，如果全球氣溫上升2℃，將可能帶來高達(dá)69萬億美元的損失^[7]~[9]。地球的氣候韌性投資每提高1美元，便可以為其他方面節(jié)省6美元^[1]。聯(lián)合國環(huán)境規(guī)劃署（UNEP）2021年發(fā)布的《氣候適應(yīng)差距報(bào)告》指出，2019年，僅發(fā)展中國家每年的氣候適應(yīng)成本就高達(dá)約796億美元；2030年時(shí)，這一數(shù)字將升至1 400~3 000億美元，2050年將達(dá)到2 800~5 000億美元^[10]。這些天文數(shù)字告訴我們，建設(shè)具有氣候韌性的人居環(huán)境需要付出多大的努力；也告訴我們，基于自然、適應(yīng)自然的建設(shè)途徑具有多大的潛力！

正是在此背景下，基于自然的綠色基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和氣候適應(yīng)的海綿城市得到了空前的關(guān)注。UNEP、世界各地政府、各大銀行也開始把注意力轉(zhuǎn)向氣候適應(yīng)的對策和行動(dòng)。尤其值得注意的是，近幾年來，帶有強(qiáng)烈中國特色的“海綿城市”概念和相關(guān)實(shí)踐成為熱點(diǎn)。Google搜索中“sponge city”的檢索結(jié)果竟多達(dá)1億條，幾乎是“孔子”（Confucius）的兩倍。而世界各大銀行—包括世界銀行、亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行、歐洲復(fù)興開發(fā)銀行—都開始將目光轉(zhuǎn)向基于自然的氣候適應(yīng)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的投資，包括建設(shè)海綿城市和生態(tài)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。僅僅在過去的兩年時(shí)間中，我本人應(yīng)邀為上述三大銀行做了八場關(guān)于基于自然的氣候適應(yīng)、海綿城市和海綿星球的專題報(bào)告。

而當(dāng)?shù)搅司唧w實(shí)施層面，我們又不得不需要對一些習(xí)以為常、甚至被認(rèn)為是“先進(jìn)”的理念和行動(dòng)提出質(zhì)問。比如，當(dāng)科學(xué)告訴我們，森林和濕地在應(yīng)對氣候變化方面非常有效，我們卻遇到了“河道管理范圍內(nèi)禁止種樹”的規(guī)范，原因竟是樹木會阻礙行洪，河道必須裁彎取直以保證高效的過洪斷面；又比如，科學(xué)告訴我們，農(nóng)林間作有利于促進(jìn)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)，特別是生態(tài)農(nóng)業(yè)需要有多樣化的生境同時(shí)存在，我們卻遇到了“永久基本農(nóng)田禁止種樹、挖塘”的規(guī)定，如此等等。于是，河流廊道失去了能適應(yīng)氣候和調(diào)節(jié)流量的濕地和河漫灘森林，田園失去了自我調(diào)節(jié)旱澇、截留和凈化面源污染的濕地，維持生態(tài)平衡的生物棲息地和生物多樣性也隨之消失。第二次全國濕地資源調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，2009~2013年，中國自然濕地面積減少了337.62萬公頃，減少率近10%^[11]。而根據(jù)本人主持的北京大學(xué)研究團(tuán)隊(duì)在安徽、重慶和云南的實(shí)際調(diào)查，中國廣大鄉(xiāng)村和農(nóng)田景觀中的陂塘和坑塘濕地消失了約30%。這意味著季風(fēng)氣候下，中國大地的氣候適應(yīng)能力相應(yīng)下降，由此造成的損失不言而喻。

因此，如何基于自然、利用自然、適應(yīng)自然，用科學(xué)的精神和系統(tǒng)的途徑設(shè)計(jì)適應(yīng)氣候變化且富有韌性的綠色基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，有賴于跨越地理、農(nóng)業(yè)、水利、市政等各個(gè)專業(yè)界面的協(xié)同設(shè)計(jì)。而這也正是景觀設(shè)計(jì)所面臨的重大挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇。

The international community has made great efforts over the past decades to cope with global climate change via two major countermeasures: carbon emission reduction and adaptation. At present, the world’s most attention is attached to carbon emission reduction or carbon neutrality. As more violent floods engulf roads and houses, stronger fire disasters rage across forests, more droughty weather steals harvests from farmers, and harsher urban heat waves threaten lives, we come to realize that carbon emission reduction helps little stop climate change. We are in urgent need to address climate change from a new perspective. As Climate Adaptation Summit 2021 (the Summit hereafter), the first of its kind hosted by the United Nations, held online on January 25 and 26, the international community shifted to the approaches of adaptation, since “adaptation cannot be the neglected half of the climate equation”^[1].

The Paris Agreement highlighted the exigency of “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels” to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.^[2] To this end, humans need to take efforts for the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050^[3]. However, predicted by The Nature Conservancy, governments and enterprises across the globe to date have been focused on accelerating the transition to clean energy and improving energy efficiency, yet the corresponding action “still lags far behind what is necessary to keep the planet below 2 °C threshold of warming, and nowhere near what is required to stay below the 1.5 °C target”^[4]. Ironically, such mitigation projects have made up the vast majority of global total climate finance in last decades^[5], while nature-based mitigation approached have been neglected. If mobilized in time, the research points out that cost-effective natural climate solutions—conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands—can offer 37% of mitigation needed between 2017 and 2030 to keep global temperature rise below 2 °C.^[6]

The Summit reported that over the past three years, climate-related disasters have cost the world USD 650 billion, more than 0.25 percent of global GDP for those years, and the costs of damages from warming in 2100 for 2 °C will be USD 69 trillion^[7]~[9]. An assessment figures out that “for every dollar invested in climate resilient infrastructure, six dollars can be saved”^[1]. Adaptation Gap Report 2021 by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) notes that climate finance flows to developing countries (for both mitigation and adaptation) reached USD 79.6 billion in 2019. It is estimated that the annual costs of adaptation in developing countries could be USD 140 ~ 300 billion by 2030 and 280 ~ 500 billion by 2050^[10]. These astonishing figures signify the huge potential of and enormous efforts required in building a climate-resilient living environment through nature-based and nature-adapted approaches!

Against this background, nature-based green infrastructures and climate-adaptive sponge cities are receiving unprecedented attention. UNEP, governments, and major banks across the globe start to put forward climate adaptation measures and actions. The concept of Sponge City that has distinctive Chinese characteristics become particularly a widely-discussed interest among international researchers and practitioners over the past few years. There are over 10 million pieces of Google search results of “sponge city,” almost twice that of “Confucius.” Major banks, including World Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, have set about investing in nature-based climate adaptation infrastructures such as sponge cities and ecological infrastructures. Over the past two years, I have delivered eight lectures on nature-based climate adaptation, sponge city, and sponge planet upon the invitation from above banks.

When it comes to implementation, we have to question the ideas or actions that are widely accepted or even “advanced” as so called. For instance, scientific knowledge proves that forests and wetlands are effective for mitigation of climate change, but existing regulations forbid to plant trees within the management areas of river courses (as trees could hinder flood drainage); It evidences that the combination of forest- and field-crops helps boost agricultural production (which is particularly true for eco-agriculture sites suffering from the loss of habitat diversity), which is also illegal under regulations such as tree planting and pond digging are not allowed in the permanent prime farmland. As a result, wetlands or floodplain forests that can contribute to climate adaptation and runoff regulation are being erased from river courses. Also, wetlands that help regulate droughts and floods and intercept and purify non-point-source polluted water bodies are being eliminated in farmlands, along with the disappear of wildlife habitats and biodiversity that are key to keeping ecological equilibrium. According to the Second Survey on National Wetlands^[11], in China, the area of natural wetland reduced by 3,376,200 hectares, a nearly 10% dropping from 2009 to 2013. The field investigation in Anhui, Chongqing, and Yunnan made by researchers from Peking University, led by the author, showed that ponds and pond wetlands in China’s rural areas and farmlands reduced by approximately 30%. Consequently, China’s climate adaptation capacity is dwindling, causing huge losses.

Therefore, collaborative design with experts from the fields of Geography, Agriculture, Hydraulic Engineering, and Civil Engineering is required to develop resilient climate-adaptive green infrastructures by scientifically and systematically leveraging the power of nature. This poses great challenges and opportunities for landscape architects.

_REFERENCES

_{[1] Guterres, A. (2021). Remarks to the Climate Adaptation Summit. UN Headquarters. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches/2021-01-25/remarks-climate-adaptation-summit}

_{[2] United Nations. (2015). Paris Agreement. Retrieved from https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf}

_{[3] Guterres, A. (2021). Remarks to the Climate Adaptation Summit. Carbon neutrality by 2050: the world’s most urgent mission. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/articles/2020-12-11/carbon-neutrality-2050-the-world%E2%80%99s-most-urgent-mission}

_{[4] The Nature Conservancy. (n. d.). Playbook for Climate Action. Author. Retrieved from https://www.nature.org/content/dam/tnc/nature/en/documents/TNC_PlaybookClimateAction.pdf}

_{[5] Lamy, Y. S., Leijonhufvud, C., & O’Donohoe, N. (2021). The Next 10 Years of Impact Investment. Stanford Social Innovation Review. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.48558/XFK2-6N65}

_{[6] Griscom, B. W., Adams, J., Ellis, P. W., Houghton, R. A., Lomax, G., Miteva, D. A., … Fargione, J. (2017). Natural climate solutions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(44), 11645–11650. doi:10.1073/pnas.1710465114}

_{[7] Moomaw, W., Law, B., Ripple, W., Verkooijen, P., Huq, S., & Gordon, C. (2021). Global Scientists Call for Economic Stimulus to Address Climate Adaptation and Covid. Global Center on Adaptation. Retrieved from https://www.preventionweb.net/news/global-scientists-call-economic-stimulus-address-climate-adaptation-and-covid}

_{[8] DiChristopher, T. (2019, Feburary 14). Climate disasters cost the world $650 billion over 3 years—Americans are bearing the brunt: Morgan Stanley. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/climate-disasters-cost-650-billion-over-3-years-morgan-stanley.html}

_{[9] Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Jacob, D., Taylor, M., Bindi, M., Brown, S., Camilloni, I., ... Zhou, G. (2018). Impacts of 1.5°C Global Warming on Natural and Human Systems. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, H.-O. Portner, et al. (Eds.), Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. In Press. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-3/}

_{[10]United Nations Environment Programme. (2021). The Gathering Storm Adapting to climate change in a post-pandemic world. Author. Retrieved from https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2021)}

_{[11]National Forestry and Grassland Administration. (2014). Main Results of the Second Survey on National Wetlands (2009-2013). Author. Retrieved from http://www.forestry.gov.cn/main/65/20140128/758154.html}

主編寄語

氣候適應(yīng)和韌性（俞孔堅(jiān)）

論文

藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對城市氣候韌性構(gòu)建的作用——基于共引文獻(xiàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的文獻(xiàn)計(jì)量分析（蔣理，劉頌，劉超）

中國綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)碳達(dá)峰實(shí)現(xiàn)的時(shí)空差異研究（王逸，邊天夏，黃賢金）

通過“交換策略”實(shí)現(xiàn)城市韌性：土耳其伊斯坦布爾市阿亞馬馬河廊道與阿塔圖爾克廢棄機(jī)場復(fù)興計(jì)劃（凱利·莉蘭妮·梅因，約德·馬布蘇，拉菲·西格爾，尼斯·道古森·亞歷山大，奧利維亞·塞拉，穆格·科穆爾庫）

基于宮脅造林法的近自然城市森林?jǐn)?shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)探索——以河北省綠博園邢臺林為例（錢小琴，劉喆，趙天祎，白樺琳，孫嬌，馮瀟）

觀點(diǎn)與評論

通過關(guān)聯(lián)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施系統(tǒng)的適應(yīng)性防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃提升氣候變化背景下的城市韌性（韓煜，黃嘯，葉信岳，巴哈·達(dá)達(dá)肖娃）

對話布雷特·米利根：氣候變化時(shí)代對創(chuàng)新、跨學(xué)科和適應(yīng)性景觀設(shè)計(jì)的倡議（布雷特·米利根，曾麓語，黃伊偉）

探索與過程

農(nóng)圈再野化：以農(nóng)野輪換促進(jìn)英國威爾士坎布里安山脈后生產(chǎn)主義農(nóng)村遺產(chǎn)景觀再生（朱丞晉）

與自然共成長：用校園中的棉田打造自然學(xué)習(xí)基地（宮欣悅，奚雪松，安星潤）

【中文刊名】《景觀設(shè)計(jì)學(xué)》——?dú)夂蜃兓c韌性人居環(huán)境

【英文刊名】Landscape Architecture Frontiers · Climate Change and Resilience of Human Settlements

【作者】蔣理（JIANG Li），王逸（WANG Yi），Kelly Leilani MAIN等

【出版社】高等教育出版社有限公司

【頁碼】136頁彩色印刷

【刊號】ISSN 2096-336X

【出版日期】2021年12月

【定價(jià)】68.00元

藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對城市氣候韌性構(gòu)建的作用——基于共引文獻(xiàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的文獻(xiàn)計(jì)量分析

The Contributions of Blue-Green Infrastructure to Building Urban Climatic Resilience

—Bibliometric Analysis Based on Co-citation Networks

作者：蔣理，劉頌，劉超  JIANG Li, LIU Song, LIU Chao

摘要

在全球氣候變化與城市可持續(xù)發(fā)展背景下，構(gòu)建氣候韌性已經(jīng)成為城市地區(qū)應(yīng)對氣候變化風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略，其中藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施被視為提升城市韌性的重要潛在工具。盡管一些研究提到藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施可以通過增加自身的多樣性、靈活性、冗余度、模塊化和分散性來促進(jìn)城市韌性，但對于在哪些領(lǐng)域促進(jìn)、具體通過什么途徑促進(jìn)，以及促進(jìn)的程度還缺乏針對性研究，無法支撐從韌性理論到規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)實(shí)踐的推進(jìn)。本文通過Citespace文獻(xiàn)計(jì)量工具識別出藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施對城市氣候韌性的主要作用領(lǐng)域?yàn)閼?yīng)對城市洪澇、海平面上升和高溫?zé)崂孙L(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并具體分析了藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在這三個(gè)領(lǐng)域中對城市氣候韌性的作用，進(jìn)而指出藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施內(nèi)在作用機(jī)制是其自身的生物－物理特性和與其功能相似的其他基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施組成模塊化單元來吸收城市系統(tǒng)遭受的干擾和沖擊，依靠網(wǎng)絡(luò)化結(jié)構(gòu)和作為庇護(hù)所來幫助系統(tǒng)在干擾和沖擊后盡快恢復(fù)物理功能和社會關(guān)系。同時(shí)，本文指出，上述作用原理尚缺數(shù)據(jù)支撐、缺乏對生態(tài)－社會－經(jīng)濟(jì)綜合利益評估，以及難以取得決策者和公眾的信任是目前藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施在應(yīng)用過程中遇到的主要問題和挑戰(zhàn)。最后，本文試從科學(xué)研究、規(guī)劃設(shè)計(jì)和實(shí)施管理等方面提出應(yīng)對策略，以期為構(gòu)建城市氣候韌性提供思路。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；氣候韌性；藍(lán)綠基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施；共引文獻(xiàn)網(wǎng)絡(luò)；基于自然的解決方案；應(yīng)用問題；應(yīng)對策略

Abstract

Against the backdrop of global climate change and in regards of urban sustainable development, enhancing climate resilience has become a critical strategy in adapting climate change for urban areas, where blue-green infrastructure is considered an important means. Although existing studies mention that blue-green infrastructure (BGI) can promote urban resilience by increasing its own diversity, flexibility, redundancy, modularization, and decentralization, questions like where to promote, by what specific means to promote and to what extent it could promote to are still lack of scientific exploration, leading insufficient support for applying resilience theory into planning and design practice.  This research recognizes the role of BGI in building climate resilience in the key fields of functioning—urban floods, sea level rise, and high temperature and heat waves—and summarizes that the common functioning mechanisms include the bio-physical properties of BGI, forming modular units with other infrastructures of similar functions, and the reliance on networked structures to help the system restore its physical functions and social connections as quickly as possible after disturbances and attacks. This paper also analyzes possible obstacles that hinder the promotion of BGI solutions—the lack of data support to BGI functioning mechanism, the lack of comprehensive assessment on ecological-social-economic benefits, and the difficulty in gaining confidence from decision-makers and the public. Finally, this paper proposes countermeasures from aspects of theoretical development, planning practice, and implementation and management, in order to offer insights for building urban climate resilience.

Keywords：Climate Change; Climate Resilience; Blue-Green Infrastructure; Co-citation Networks; Nature-Based Solutions; Applied Problems; Countermeasures

中國綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)碳達(dá)峰實(shí)現(xiàn)的時(shí)空差異研究

Research on Time–Space Differences in the Prediction of Carbon Peaking of China’s Comprehensive Economic Zones

作者：王逸，邊天夏，黃賢金  WANG Yi, BIAN Tianxia, HUANG Xianjin

摘要

實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰、碳中和目標(biāo)已成為各國參與全球氣候變化治理的關(guān)鍵一環(huán)，中國碳達(dá)峰研究對于“中國于2030年前實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰”承諾的達(dá)成和路徑的執(zhí)行具有重要影響和現(xiàn)實(shí)支撐。本文構(gòu)建了STIRPAT碳達(dá)峰時(shí)間預(yù)測模型，結(jié)合情景設(shè)置方法，對中國八大綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)碳達(dá)峰時(shí)間進(jìn)行預(yù)測，并在全國層面分析碳達(dá)峰實(shí)現(xiàn)的可能路徑。研究結(jié)果顯示：各大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)實(shí)現(xiàn)碳達(dá)峰時(shí)間差異較大，分為基準(zhǔn)情景可達(dá)峰地區(qū)、條件約束下可達(dá)峰地區(qū)和條件約束下仍無法達(dá)峰地區(qū)。基準(zhǔn)情景可達(dá)峰地區(qū)基于區(qū)域社會經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展特征，具有主動(dòng)達(dá)峰（大西南、東部沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)）和被動(dòng)達(dá)峰（東北經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)）的內(nèi)部差異；條件約束下可達(dá)峰地區(qū)包括兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)達(dá)沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)（北部沿海、南部沿海經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)）和主要能源輸出經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)（黃河中游經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)）；條件約束下仍無法達(dá)峰地區(qū)為發(fā)展起步較晚的兩大經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)（長江中游、大西北經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)）。本文結(jié)合各區(qū)域?qū)嶋H經(jīng)濟(jì)、人口、產(chǎn)業(yè)和能源等特征，提出保障區(qū)域發(fā)展公平均衡的全國協(xié)調(diào)的碳達(dá)峰路徑倡議，并指出，不同區(qū)域采取差異化的達(dá)峰策略可能比所有區(qū)域同時(shí)采取單一產(chǎn)業(yè)或能源約束策略對碳排放增長更具約束力。

關(guān)鍵詞：碳達(dá)峰；STIRPAT模型；情景分析；區(qū)域差異；八大綜合經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)；碳排放強(qiáng)度

Abstract

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have become key agendas for countries to participate in global climate change governance. Research on China’s carbon peaking has a guidance significance for the actions to achieve a nationwide carbon peaking by 2030. This paper builds a STIRPAT model which, in combination with a scenario -setting method, predicts the carbon peaking time of eight comprehensive economic zones in China, and analyzes the possible path of achieving carbon peaking at national level. The result shows a disparity in carbon peaking time among the zones—there are zones that can achieve carbon peaking under baseline scenario; zones that can achieve carbon peaking under conditional scenarios; and zones that cannot achieve carbon peaking under any scenario. In the first group, the zones can achieve carbon emission through both active path (southwest and eastern coastal comprehensive economic zones) and passive path (northeast comprehensive economic zones) according to characteristics of regional socio-economic development. The second group includes two economic anchors (northern coastal and southern coastal comprehensive economic zones) and an energy-exporting center (the middle reaches of Yellow River comprehensive economic zone). Zones in the third group generally witness a late development (the middle reaches of Yangtze River and northwest comprehensive zones). Based on characteristics of regional economy, population, industry, and energy of each zone, this paper proposes an initiative that the achievement of a nationwide carbon peaking should take regional development equity into consideration, and presumes that making each zone adopts differentiated peaking strategies may have a stronger effectiveness in controlling carbon emission growth than making all zones adopt strategies constraining on single factors on industry or energy.

Keywords：Carbon Peaking; STIRPAT Model; Scenario Analysis; Regional Difference; Eight Comprehensive Economic Zones; Carbon Emission Intensity

通過“交換策略”實(shí)現(xiàn)城市韌性：土耳其伊斯坦布爾市阿亞馬馬河廊道與阿塔圖爾克廢棄機(jī)場復(fù)興計(jì)劃

Swap Strategy for Urban Resilience: Reviving the Ayamama River Corridor and Ataturk Decommissioned Airport in Istanbul, Turkey

作者：凱利·莉蘭妮·梅因，約德·馬布蘇，拉菲·西格爾，尼斯·道古森·亞歷山大，奧利維亞·塞拉，穆格·科穆爾庫  Kelly Leilani MAIN, Joude MABSOUT, Rafi SEGAL, Nese DOGUSAN ALEXANDER, Olivia SERRA, Muge KOMURCU

摘要

自20世紀(jì)50年代以來，伊斯坦布爾阿亞馬馬河廊道因城市化發(fā)展不斷退化。受全流域土地開發(fā)與氣候變化的共同影響，洪水事件越發(fā)頻繁，威脅著洪泛區(qū)中居民的生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全。氣候變化導(dǎo)致的極端降雨事件頻率不斷增加，且強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)時(shí)間都有所加劇，我們亟需采取措施降低易受損資產(chǎn)遭遇城市洪澇的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。然而，伊斯坦布爾的開發(fā)密度極高且開放空間匱乏，既要為處于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地區(qū)的建筑找到適宜的搬遷地點(diǎn)，又要為周邊街區(qū)提供便利設(shè)施并非易事。已停用的阿塔圖爾克機(jī)場或可提供機(jī)遇，幫助探究如何通過城市閑置地改造來提升城市的洪水適應(yīng)能力。盡管當(dāng)前的機(jī)場再開發(fā)方案提出要建設(shè)一個(gè)大型公園并添加全新的文化設(shè)施，但這一公園不僅缺乏能夠與周邊社區(qū)互動(dòng)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施，也難以幫助阿亞馬馬河應(yīng)對嚴(yán)峻的環(huán)境挑戰(zhàn)。本文提出了一種基于城市閑置地的“交換策略”，建議利用阿塔圖爾克機(jī)場廢棄場地來緩解阿亞馬馬河的開發(fā)壓力。交換策略可在搬遷、復(fù)興與再連接基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的同時(shí)，修復(fù)受損的洪泛區(qū)。隨著氣候變化影響的日益顯著，這一城市發(fā)展的新概念期望推動(dòng)規(guī)劃師與設(shè)計(jì)師就廢棄基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施與大型城市閑置地的再利用達(dá)成共識，幫助減輕洪泛區(qū)的壓力。同時(shí)由于搬遷距離短，該策略可在不降低搬遷居民生活質(zhì)量及不影響企業(yè)生產(chǎn)活動(dòng)的前提下，為河流修復(fù)項(xiàng)目提供空間。

關(guān)鍵詞：城市洪水；氣候適應(yīng)；廢棄基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施；氣候變化；河流修復(fù)；搬遷；適應(yīng)性再利用

Abstract

The Ayamama River in Istanbul has been substantially degraded due to urbanization of the river corridor since the 1950s. Development throughout the watershed and climate change contribute to increasing severity of flash flooding events that threaten life and property in the floodplain. As the intensity, duration or frequency of extreme rainfall events continue to increase with climate change, it is imperative to reduce the risk of urban flooding to vulnerable assets. However, as Istanbul is a city famous for its density and lack of open space, finding suitable relocation sites for at-risk structures, while maintaining access to recreational amenities for the surrounding neighborhoods is a daunting task. The decommissioned Ataturk Airport provides a unique opportunity to re-imagine the utility of urban voids in helping cities adapt to increasing flood impacts. While the current airport redevelopment proposal includes the construction of a massive park and new cultural amenities, such a park lacks sufficient connective infrastructure to its surrounding neighborhoods and does little to alleviate the significant environmental challenges of its neighbor, the Ayamama River. In this paper, we explore the use of the decommissioned Ataturk Airport site to relieve development pressure from the Ayamama River by implementing a novel swap strategy for urban voids. The proposed swap strategy design methodology relocates, regenerates, and reconnects decommissioned infrastructures and degraded floodplains simultaneously. As the impacts of climate change become more prominent, this novel urban concept seeks to initiate a conversation amongst planners and designers around the use of decommissioned infrastructure and large-scale urban voids to help relieve pressure from urban floodplains. Meanwhile, it can make room for river restoration projects without decreasing the quality of life of relocated residents or negatively impacting relocated economic activities by identifying redevelopment sites in close proximity.

Keywords：Urban Flooding; Climate Adaptation; Decommissioned Infrastructure; Climate Change; River Restoration; Relocation; Adaptive Reuse

基于宮脅造林法的近自然城市森林?jǐn)?shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)探索——以河北省綠博園邢臺林為例

Digital Design Exploration of Nature-Approximating Urban Forest Basing on the Miyawaki Method: A Case Study of Xingtai Forest in a Hebei Green Expo Garden

作者：錢小琴，劉喆，趙天祎，白樺琳，孫嬌，馮瀟  QIAN Xiaoqin, LIU Zhe, ZHAO Tianyi, BAI Hualin, SUN Jiao, FENG Xiao

摘要

當(dāng)下，中國城市森林的建設(shè)正處于高潮階段，數(shù)字化技術(shù)的進(jìn)步逐步推動(dòng)著城市森林的發(fā)展。本文以近自然林業(yè)、潛在自然植被和新演替理論為理論基礎(chǔ)，以“宮脅造林法”為實(shí)踐基石，將經(jīng)典理論與數(shù)字化技術(shù)結(jié)合應(yīng)用，開展近自然城市森林的數(shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)探索。首先，文章梳理了近自然城市森林的發(fā)展歷程，提出將數(shù)字化技術(shù)與近自然城市森林營建相結(jié)合的必要性。其次，借鑒“宮脅造林法”的相關(guān)步驟，提出近自然城市森林的數(shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)方法，包括“認(rèn)知”“模擬”和“營建”三大步驟。最后，以河北省綠博園邢臺林為例進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究，分步解析近自然城市森林的數(shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)方法。具體的方法是：1）認(rèn)知，通過植被調(diào)查研究自然群落特征，確定群落的關(guān)鍵參數(shù)；2）模擬，模擬自然群落構(gòu)建目標(biāo)群落，利用相關(guān)軟件分析場地生境及劃分目標(biāo)群落類型，進(jìn)行目標(biāo)群落的類型設(shè)計(jì)和具體模式設(shè)計(jì)；3）營建，即數(shù)字化生成，利用Grasshopper結(jié)合Python腳本構(gòu)建數(shù)字化生成運(yùn)算集，代入關(guān)鍵參數(shù)的具體數(shù)值后即可生成種植設(shè)計(jì)圖紙和相關(guān)苗木信息。該方法的建立為近自然城市森林的數(shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)提供了新的思路，能夠推動(dòng)更加科學(xué)、高效的城市森林建設(shè)。

關(guān)鍵詞：風(fēng)景園林；宮脅造林法；近自然城市森林；植物群落；數(shù)字化設(shè)計(jì)

Abstract

Driven by digital technologies, urban forest development is at its height in China. Guided by the theories of nature-approximating forestry, potential natural vegetation and new succession, and by the Miyawaki Method, this paper explores the digital design of nature-approximating urban forest by innovatively applying widely-accepted theories with digital technologies. The paper reviews the evolution of nature-approximating urban forest and discusses why it is essential to introduce digital technologies into this type of forest’s development. Based on the Miyawaki Method, this study proposes a three-step digital design approach to creating nature-approximating urban forest: cognition, simulation, and construction. Also, an empirical study on Xingtai Forest in a Hebei Green Expo Garden is conducted to analyze the digital design methods of nature-approximating urban forest. Steps include 1) cognition of plants to investigate characteristics of natural communities by collecting their key parameters; 2) construction of target communities by simulating natural communities, analyzing and classifying target habitats of designed communities by relevant software, and developing type and pattern designs of target communities; and 3) production of detailed construction schemes by utilizing Grasshopper and Python to generate digital generation clusters, after which planting design drawings and seedling information can be obtained by inputting values of key parameters. This method provides a new perspective on the digital design of nature-approximating urban forest, which helps facilitate urban forest development in an efficient way.

Keywords：Landscape Architecture; Miyawaki Method; Nature-Approximating Urban Forest; Plant Community; Digital Design

通過關(guān)聯(lián)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施系統(tǒng)的適應(yīng)性防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃提升氣候變化背景下的城市韌性

Adaptation Planning and Hazard Mitigation for Interdependent Infrastructure Systems to Enhance Urban Resilience Under Climate Change

作者：韓煜，黃嘯，葉信岳，巴哈·達(dá)達(dá)肖娃  HAN Yu, HUANG Xiao, YE Xinyue, Bahar DADASHOVA

摘要

氣候變化和自然災(zāi)害對人類社會造成了多方面的影響。城市規(guī)劃與設(shè)計(jì)是應(yīng)對氣候變化和防災(zāi)減災(zāi)的有效手段。然而，由于城市基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施系統(tǒng)間的關(guān)聯(lián)性，城市系統(tǒng)遭受的由氣候變化引發(fā)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及影響尺度繁多且復(fù)雜。規(guī)劃者需要了解并評估自然災(zāi)害對關(guān)聯(lián)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及可能產(chǎn)生的連鎖反應(yīng)，制定應(yīng)對這些影響的適應(yīng)性規(guī)劃策略。本文討論了將社會和實(shí)體基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施系統(tǒng)納入適應(yīng)性防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃過程的機(jī)遇和挑戰(zhàn)。適應(yīng)性防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃過程包括氣候?yàn)?zāi)害評估、適應(yīng)性規(guī)劃目標(biāo)確立、適應(yīng)性戰(zhàn)略制定及適應(yīng)性政策實(shí)施。城市大數(shù)據(jù)和高性能計(jì)算資源的廣泛使用可輔助城市規(guī)劃者和決策者更好地應(yīng)對氣候變化和自然災(zāi)害所帶來的復(fù)雜影響。為成功構(gòu)建結(jié)合關(guān)聯(lián)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施系統(tǒng)的適應(yīng)性防災(zāi)減災(zāi)規(guī)劃，需要解決氣候預(yù)測的不確定性、適應(yīng)性規(guī)劃的制度性問題，以及城市大數(shù)據(jù)的代表性存疑等問題。上述問題可通過多學(xué)科專家共同合作，不同層級政府部門相互協(xié)調(diào)，以及開發(fā)更完善的數(shù)據(jù)保護(hù)機(jī)制和更健全的數(shù)據(jù)檢測方法解決。

關(guān)鍵詞：適應(yīng)性規(guī)劃；防災(zāi)減災(zāi)；關(guān)聯(lián)基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施系統(tǒng)；氣候變化；城市韌性；大數(shù)據(jù)

Abstract

Climate change and natural hazards have created multiple impacts on human settlements. Urban planning and design are effective tools in dealing with climate adaptation and mitigation issues. However, climate risk and its impacts are multiscale and complex due to interdependence between urban infrastructure systems. Identifying adaptation strategies to cope with these impacts requires planners to understand potential interdependent and interrelated consequences of infrastructure failure under natural hazards, and evaluate cascading and cumulative effects of climate change. This article discussed opportunities and challenges to incorporate interdependent social and physical infrastructure systems in the adaptation planning and hazard mitigation process, including climate hazard assessment, adaptation goal identification, adaptation strategy development, and implementation. The availability of urban big data and high computational resources will enable urban planners and decision-makers to better deal with those complex impacts from climate change and natural hazards. Successful adaptation planning and hazard mitigation for interdependent infrastructure systems also needs to solve issues in uncertainties of climate projection, institutional barriers of adaptation, and challenges of urban big data. Potential solutions to these challenges would include cooperation among multi-disciplinary experts, coordination between different levels of governments, and developing the ethical framework for data protection and robust methodologies to detect and reduce data bias.

Keywords：Adaptation Planning; Hazard Mitigation; Interdependent Infrastructure System; Climate Change; Urban Resilience; Big Data

對話布雷特·米利根：氣候變化時(shí)代對創(chuàng)新、跨學(xué)科和適應(yīng)性景觀設(shè)計(jì)的倡議

A Call for Innovative, Multidisciplinary Adaptive Landscape Design in the Age of Climate Change: Interview With Brett Milligan

作者：布雷特·米利根，曾麓語，黃伊偉  Brett MILLIGAN, ZENG Luyu, HUANG Yiwei

摘要

布雷特?米利根是一位致力于探究氣候變化時(shí)代景觀行業(yè)的未來發(fā)展的卓越學(xué)者。無論是研究還是實(shí)踐，他都注重打破對于景觀設(shè)計(jì)的固有觀念。他的主要研究對象包括淤泥及其他河流沉積物；參與的實(shí)踐項(xiàng)目也大多涉及跨學(xué)科協(xié)同設(shè)計(jì)，如大壩拆除及生態(tài)修復(fù)、三角洲棲息地營建等。他將景觀本身視為一種動(dòng)態(tài)過程，強(qiáng)調(diào)其流動(dòng)性，以及人類對于景觀過程的重要作用。在本文中，米利根就氣候變化及其對景觀設(shè)計(jì)所造成的影響等方面展開探討，并指出我們?nèi)祟悜?yīng)當(dāng)敬畏景觀自我演變的力量，并基于對這種景觀力量的認(rèn)知和尊重開展實(shí)踐。在應(yīng)對氣候變化的景觀設(shè)計(jì)實(shí)踐中，需要更審慎地考慮項(xiàng)目的生命周期問題，同時(shí)綜合考慮環(huán)境、居民、社區(qū)和沉積等外部因素，體現(xiàn)對包容性、多樣性和人類及其他物種的正義。此外，需要引入公眾參與，進(jìn)一步完善跨學(xué)科協(xié)同設(shè)計(jì)方法。最后，米利根介紹了“設(shè)計(jì)研究”的相關(guān)方法，并表達(dá)了對推進(jìn)設(shè)計(jì)成為一種嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)而獨(dú)特的知識創(chuàng)造形式的期望。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；景觀遷移；沉積物；基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施；協(xié)同設(shè)計(jì)；設(shè)計(jì)研究

Abstract

Brett Milligan stands out among all the scholars studying the future of the landscape profession in the context of climate change. He studied unique subjects, such as mud and river sediments. His projects often go beyond the usual landscape architecture majors, such as ecological restoration after dam removal and delta habitat creation; His attitude towards landscape is also very characteristic. For example, he treats landscape as a process, believes that people are very important beings in the process of landscape, and that the fluidity of landscape should not be underestimated. Through this article, Milligan points out the responsibility to acknowledge, embrace, and use landscape forces in project planning and design. It is also required to bring about more humility in terms of how we conceptualize the lifespan of a project to cope with climate change impacts. He encourages us to think beyond externalities—such as environment, people, communities, and sediment—as a practice of inclusion, diversity, and justice for humans and others. Relatedly, the public should be included as part of refined transdisciplinary and co-design methods. In the end, he shares his vision of design as a rigorous and unique form of knowledge making through a new Research by Design track.

Keywords：Climate Change; Landscape Migration; Sediment; Infrastructure; Co-Design; Research by Design

以農(nóng)野輪換促進(jìn)英國威爾士坎布里安山脈后生產(chǎn)主義農(nóng)村遺產(chǎn)景觀再生

Paddock Rewilding: An Agri-wilding Scenario for a Regenerative Rural Heritage Landscape in Post-productivist Cambrian Mountains, Wales, UK

作者：朱丞晉  CHU Shing Chun Paul

摘要

長久以來集約化的農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)引發(fā)出許多時(shí)下亟待解決的環(huán)境問題。在此背景下，“再野化”概念被引入學(xué)術(shù)研究領(lǐng)域，倡導(dǎo)生態(tài)中心主義，期望將原始荒野重新引入人工環(huán)境，使得開放連續(xù)的自然過程重新主導(dǎo)景觀環(huán)境演替。隨著歐洲國家的邊緣農(nóng)業(yè)用地撂荒現(xiàn)象不斷加劇，再野化作為一種被動(dòng)管理方式被廣泛推行。然而，這種管理方式受到了世代以土地為生且習(xí)慣于主動(dòng)土地管理方式傳統(tǒng)的農(nóng)牧民的強(qiáng)烈反對。本項(xiàng)目試圖在遺產(chǎn)景觀的永續(xù)使用和再野化這兩種極端對立的土地利用觀念間建立起協(xié)同關(guān)系，緩解因不間斷的農(nóng)耕與放牧所導(dǎo)致的植被覆蓋率降低與土壤肥力流失問題。本項(xiàng)目以位于英國威爾士坎布里安山脈的龐塔費(fèi)納奇社區(qū)為例，受到本土“遷徙耕作”的輪作農(nóng)耕方式啟發(fā)，生成了“農(nóng)圈再野化”的設(shè)計(jì)理念及相應(yīng)方法論。這種景觀干預(yù)方法融合了時(shí)間尺度、游牧傳統(tǒng)和沿襲的公地權(quán)屬機(jī)制，將農(nóng)業(yè)景觀視為在時(shí)間維度上的循環(huán)波動(dòng)，建立起潛在的土地變化節(jié)律，設(shè)想了在更大范圍的用地上實(shí)現(xiàn)“再野化”與“去野化”永續(xù)更迭的場景，期望建立平衡、可持續(xù)的土地管理范式。

關(guān)鍵詞：再野化；可持續(xù)農(nóng)地管理；景觀遺產(chǎn)；遷徙耕作；新自由主義

Abstract

The historical agriculture intensification has left notable environmental issues pressing to be resolved these days. In this context, rewilding was introduced into science as an eco-centric approach to introduce pristine wilderness back into artificial environment and allow open-ended and continuous natural processes to regain dominance in landscape. This passive management approach flourishes as a result of marginal farmland abandonment across Europe, has meanwhile sparked debate with farmers who live off the land that historically embraces active management. Paddock Rewilding investigates a middle ground to mediate and create synergies in two conceptually polarized value systems of heritage landscape and rewilding to combat the loss of vegetative cover and soil fertility that has resulted from nearly a century of continual harvesting and livestock pasturing. Inspired by the indigenous pathway of “shifting cultivation,” a pilot community in Cambrian Mountains, Wales, UK—Pontarfynach has been selected to demonstrate the idea of Paddock Rewilding and corresponding landscape intervention. The intervention employs timescale, traditional movement of livestock, and the historical rights of the Common land to treat the landscape as a temporal gradient to unlatch the potential land rhythm, and explores how larger territories can be elaborated into a “permanently impermanent” rotational scenario between “Rewilding” and “Dewilding,” to offer a possible alternative to envision a balanced and sustainable land management paradigm.

Keywords：Rewilding; Sustainability Management; Farmland Landscape; Shifting Cultivation; Neoliberal Conservation

與自然共成長：用校園中的棉田打造自然學(xué)習(xí)基地

Growing With Nature: School Cotton Field for Nature-Based Learning

作者：宮欣悅，奚雪松，安星潤  GONG Xinyue, XI Xuesong, AN Xingrun

摘要

“校園中的半畝棉田”是由中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)攜手清華附中永豐學(xué)校小學(xué)部、中國農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)附屬實(shí)驗(yàn)小學(xué)等學(xué)校共同發(fā)起的參與式校園景觀營造項(xiàng)目。為回應(yīng)當(dāng)今社會在大中小學(xué)開展“勞動(dòng)教育”的需求，響應(yīng)國家關(guān)于涉農(nóng)高校加強(qiáng)“耕讀教育”的指導(dǎo)要求，本項(xiàng)目聚焦低效利用的校園綠化用地，種植棉花代替常見的景觀植物，以大學(xué)及小學(xué)師生為參與主體，打造校園棉田耕讀教育場地，并借助棉田場地開展棉田農(nóng)事、棉藝創(chuàng)作等活動(dòng)，構(gòu)建以農(nóng)歷年為周期的創(chuàng)新型耕讀教育模式。項(xiàng)目旨在讓學(xué)生親身參與農(nóng)耕勞作，感受自然的力量，在勞動(dòng)中啟發(fā)創(chuàng)新與探索精神；引導(dǎo)學(xué)生回歸生活，在與土地的連接中思考萬事萬物的本源，懂得珍惜身邊的一草一木；讓校園景觀中的一隅充分發(fā)揮其場所價(jià)值，豐富校園中的勞動(dòng)教育場景，在耕作中實(shí)現(xiàn)中華傳統(tǒng)耕讀文化的傳承。

關(guān)鍵詞：校園綠地景觀；勞動(dòng)教育；校園半畝棉田；自然；二十四節(jié)氣

Abstract

“School Cotton Field” is a participatory landscape design project jointly initiated by China Agricultural University, Primary School Division of Tsinghua University High School Yongfeng, Primary School Affiliated to China Agricultural University, and other schools. To meet the call for labor education in schools at all levels, as well as the national guidance on strengthening farming–reading education in agricultural colleges, this project proposes to plant cotton, rather than common landscape vegetation underutilized green spaces on campus to create a site for farming–reading education, involving teachers, students, and their parents. The School Cotton Field provides opportunities for activities such as farming and cotton artworks making, establishing an innovative model of farming–reading education based on the Chinese calendar. The project allows students to get inspired for innovation and exploration by farming, and to learn the deep connections between human and nature, as well as the value of living creatures on the land in daily life. It also takes full advantage of the campus landscape to enhance its role in providing labor education, thus to revive the traditional Chinese farming–reading culture on modern campus.

Keywords：Campus Green Spaces; Labor Education; School Cotton Field Project; Nature; 24 Solar Terms